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	<title>East of England &#8211; Radlett Wire</title>
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	<description>For over ten years - since way before everything went weird - we&#039;ve been droning on about Radlett and the Hertsmere Parliamentary constituency</description>
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	<title>East of England &#8211; Radlett Wire</title>
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		<title>The EU Parliamentary election results are in</title>
		<link>https://radlettwire.co.uk/2019/05/the-eu-parliamentary-election-results-are-in/</link>
					<comments>https://radlettwire.co.uk/2019/05/the-eu-parliamentary-election-results-are-in/#respond</comments>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[admin]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 27 May 2019 01:15:49 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[brexit]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[East of England]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[election]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Hertsmere]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[politics]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://radlettwire.co.uk/?p=940</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[A dramatic result in Radlett&#8217;s EU constituency &#8211; East of England. A wipe-out for Labour and a big loss for the Tories. An amazing result for the Brexit Party, the Greens and the Lib Dems (oh, and UKIP essentially disappeared). The Conservatives lost two of their three MEPs in our EU Parliamentary constituency, leaving them [&#8230;]]]></description>
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<p><strong>A dramatic result in Radlett&#8217;s EU constituency &#8211; East of England. A wipe-out for Labour and a big loss for the Tories. An amazing result for the Brexit Party, the Greens and the Lib Dems (oh, and UKIP essentially disappeared).</strong></p>



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img fetchpriority="high" decoding="async" width="1024" height="283" src="http://radlettwire.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/Screenshot-2019-05-27-at-01.00.01-1024x283.png" alt="" class="wp-image-941" srcset="https://radlettwire.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/Screenshot-2019-05-27-at-01.00.01-1024x283.png 1024w, https://radlettwire.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/Screenshot-2019-05-27-at-01.00.01-300x83.png 300w, https://radlettwire.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/Screenshot-2019-05-27-at-01.00.01-768x212.png 768w, https://radlettwire.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/Screenshot-2019-05-27-at-01.00.01.png 1686w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></figure>



<p><strong>The Conservatives lost two of their three MEPs</strong> in our EU Parliamentary constituency, leaving them with one. The Liberal Democrats gained two seats &#8211; from zero last time around, Labour&#8217;s only MEP in the region has gone and the Greens have their first seat. The extraordinary factor here, as in so many other constituencies, is the performance of the Brexit Party &#8211; the largest party by a mile. The detail shows the scale of their win. Their vote in East of England is almost four times bigger than the Tories&#8217;.</p>



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" width="426" height="320" src="http://radlettwire.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/Screenshot-2019-05-27-at-01.56.43.png" alt="" class="wp-image-943" srcset="https://radlettwire.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/Screenshot-2019-05-27-at-01.56.43.png 426w, https://radlettwire.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/Screenshot-2019-05-27-at-01.56.43-300x225.png 300w" sizes="(max-width: 426px) 100vw, 426px" /></figure>



<p><strong>Looking more locally</strong>, at the voting percentages for our council district &#8211; Hertsmere &#8211; there&#8217;s some fascinating detail. Turnout was 36.39% (compared with 36.4% for the East of England and 37% nationally. Across Europe, the figure exceeded 50% for the first time).</p>



<p>You can see that UKIP&#8217;s share of the vote has fallen by 26.3% to 2.7%. <a href="https://lordashcroftpolls.com/2019/05/my-euro-election-post-vote-poll-most-tory-switchers-say-they-will-stay-with-their-new-party/#more-15953">Lord Ashcroft&#8217;s fascinating post-election polling</a> (an essential read after every important election these days) suggests that 68% of UKIP voters, at the national level, switched directly to Farage&#8217;s party, with most Brexit Party votes overall coming from 2017 Conservative voters. The Hertsmere numbers suggest slightly more of the UKIP voters switched and slightly fewer of the Tories. Instructive, though, to remember that UKIP&#8217;s vote in Hertsmere in the 2017 General Election was 3% (our full 2017 results post is <a href="http://radlettwire.co.uk/2017/06/2017-hertsmere-general-election-results/">here</a>).</p>



<p>The Conservatives&#8217; collapse in Hertsmere is dramatic but they&#8217;ve lost a substantially smaller share then at the National or East of England level, falling only 20 percentage points to 17.7%. Ashcroft&#8217;s numbers also suggest that almost 40% of the Lib Dem vote nationally came from 2017 Labour voters and a quarter from 2017 Tories. </p>



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" width="942" height="886" src="http://radlettwire.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/Screenshot-2019-05-27-at-22.59.15.png" alt="" class="wp-image-950" srcset="https://radlettwire.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/Screenshot-2019-05-27-at-22.59.15.png 942w, https://radlettwire.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/Screenshot-2019-05-27-at-22.59.15-300x282.png 300w, https://radlettwire.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/Screenshot-2019-05-27-at-22.59.15-768x722.png 768w" sizes="(max-width: 942px) 100vw, 942px" /></figure>



<p>In some ways the Green Party&#8217;s performance, both in Hertsmere and at the East of England level, is most interesting &#8211; their increase in vote share has been enough to get them just above the threshold for a single seat and they&#8217;ve essentially swapped places with Labour, whose share has fallen to just below the threshold, but the whole picture is so complex &#8211; somebody really did shake the kaleidoscope.</p>



<p><strong>Nationally, it&#8217;s not so different</strong>. According to Laura Kuenssberg on the BBC election results programme, if the Conservatives had done this badly in a UK general election they&#8217;d have won <em>no seats at all</em>.                                                       </p>



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="440" src="http://radlettwire.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/Screenshot-2019-05-27-at-02.06.35-1024x440.png" alt="" class="wp-image-944" srcset="https://radlettwire.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/Screenshot-2019-05-27-at-02.06.35-1024x440.png 1024w, https://radlettwire.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/Screenshot-2019-05-27-at-02.06.35-300x129.png 300w, https://radlettwire.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/Screenshot-2019-05-27-at-02.06.35-768x330.png 768w, https://radlettwire.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/Screenshot-2019-05-27-at-02.06.35.png 1290w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></figure>



<p>At the wider European level it&#8217;s been a good night for the far right &#8211; the largest parties in the Parliament from both France and Italy are now from what we would once have called the nationalist fringe &#8211; and for the Greens. The largest groups in the new Parliament are still from the socialist and centre right blocs but they no longer have a majority &#8211; this is going to be interesting. </p>



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="1000" src="http://radlettwire.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/Screenshot-2019-05-27-at-10.44.51-1024x1000.png" alt="" class="wp-image-947" srcset="https://radlettwire.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/Screenshot-2019-05-27-at-10.44.51-1024x1000.png 1024w, https://radlettwire.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/Screenshot-2019-05-27-at-10.44.51-300x293.png 300w, https://radlettwire.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/Screenshot-2019-05-27-at-10.44.51-768x750.png 768w, https://radlettwire.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/Screenshot-2019-05-27-at-10.44.51.png 1282w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /><figcaption>o</figcaption></figure>



<p>Most of the data in this post is from the BBC&#8217;s excellent and very comprehensive <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/topics/c7zzdg3pmgpt/european-elections-2019">election results site</a>, some from <a href="http://www.europarl.europa.eu/unitedkingdom/en/european-elections/european_elections/results2019.html">the EU&#8217;s</a> and the Hertsmere turnout figure is from <a href="https://www.hertsmere.gov.uk/Your-Council/Democracy--Elections/2019-European-Elections.aspx">Hertsmere&#8217;s own elections web site</a>.</p>



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