It was a surprise. As late as the close of polling on Thursday you could still get 7/1 on Brexit (that’s a 12.5% probability). The polls weren’t too far off but still gave Remain a small lead.
Our polling district, Hertsmere, voted Leave by a margin of 1.6% (50.8 – 49.2%), putting the district 262nd of the 382 polling districts – meaning that 261 districts, or 68% of the total, had larger majorities for Leave.
The table above, which uses data from the BBC web site, puts Hertsmere in the context of its immediate neighbours and confirms what we already know – the three London boroughs to the South voted Remain and all of our other neighbours outside London (except St Albans) voted Leave.
For comparison, I’ve included London itself and the constituency with the largest Leave vote – Boston in Lincolnshire – and the one with the largest Remain vote – Lambeth (I’ve excluded the obvious outlier, Gibraltar, where all but 96 people voted to remain).
It’s difficult to know how Radlett itself voted. The referendum poll – unlike general elections – is not broken down by ward and, of course, there’s no such thing as a ‘safe seat’ in a referendum. Every vote counts. Our own opinion poll of local voters gave a small win to Remain.
Some local people are clearly in shock – especially those whose jobs depend on the financial sector. Others are celebrating. Were you surprised by the result? Do you think we’ve made a terrible mistake? Or is this, as Nigel Farage puts it, a ‘new dawn’ for Britain? Leave a comment below (anonymously if you like) and we’ll share your reactions here, on Facebook and on Twitter.